Global energy scenarios: A geopolitical reality check
Mathieu Blondeel, James H. Price, Michael Bradshaw, Steve Pye, Paul E. Dodds, Caroline Kuzemko, Gavin Bridge
Abstract
The ongoing Global Energy System Transformation (GEST) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. We explore the ‘integration gap’ that exists between, on the one hand, Energy System Modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. We consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system’s future. Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. Our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between ‘paper transitions’ and the real-world messiness and complexities of GEST, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process.