Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast
K. K. Hon, Robert Ballard, Eric S. Blake, S. W. Bond, Robb P. Gile, Daniel J. Halperin, Charles N. Helms, Hoang Lam, Xinyan Lyu, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Monica Sharma, Akira Shimokobe, Ralf Toumi, Seong‐Hee Won
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.