Time-to-event modeling for hospital length of stay prediction for COVID-19 patients
Yuxin Wen, Md Fashiar Rahman, Yan Zhuang, Michael Pokojovy, Honglun Xu, Peter McCaffrey, Alexander H. Vo, Eric Walser, Scott T. Moen, Tzu-Liang Tseng
Abstract
Providing timely patient care while maintaining optimal resource utilization is one of the central operational challenges hospitals have been facing throughout the pandemic. Hospital length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of hospital efficiency, quality of patient care, and operational resilience. Numerous researchers have developed regression or classification models to predict LOS. However, conventional models suffer from the lack of capability to make use of typically censored clinical data. We propose to use time-to-event modeling techniques, also known as survival analysis, to predict the LOS for patients based on individualized information collected from multiple sources. The performance of six proposed survival models is evaluated and compared based on clinical data from COVID-19 patients.