From energy dependency to energy security: How the war in Ukraine accelerated renewable deployment in Europe
Tetiana Vasylieva, Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, József Popp, Andreas Horsch
Abstract
The war in Ukraine has transformed Europe’s energy landscape, prompting urgent efforts to accelerate the transition to renewable energy in response to both security and climate imperatives. The aim of this research is to examine whether the geopolitical shock of 2022, together with associated sanctions, produced a measurable acceleration in renewable electricity deployment across European countries. Using panel data for 34 countries from 2014 to 2023, the study employs difference-in-differences, event study, and triple-difference models, which utilise Eurostat and World Bank data, and variables are normalised through Yeo–Johnson transformations. The results demonstrate a significant structural break in 2022. Aggregate renewable and waste capacity increased by 0.55 (p < 0.001) on average, an effect that remained robust, though reduced to 0.16 (p < 0.001), when country-specific trends were controlled for. Technology-specific estimates reveal firm heterogeneity: solar expanded most rapidly (1.30, p < 0.001), wind capacity also rose (0.64, p < 0.01), whereas hydropower exhibited only marginal gains (0.10, p ≈ 0.05) and biofuels showed no systematic change. A triple-difference specification confirms that post-2022 acceleration was concentrated in fast-deploying technologies, with a differential effect of 1.55 (p < 0.001) compared to hydro and biofuels. These findings demonstrate that the war in Ukraine marked another turning point in Europe’s renewable energy transition.