Climate models for predicting precipitation and temperature trends in cities: A systematic review
Fahad Shah, Ayyoob Sharifi
Abstract
• Models used to predict future changes in precipitation and temperature are reviewed. • Studies are categorized based on the type and geographic focus of climate models. • Neural networks and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 are dominant. • Most models indicate significant changes in precipitation and temperature across cities. • These changes could intensify the frequency of heatwaves, floods, and droughts. Climate change is increasingly putting pressure on urban areas and threatening millions of lives. In this context, diverse climate models have been utilized to predict future changes in precipitation and temperature. Despite substantial research in this field, there is a lack of review of various climate models, their predictive reliability, and their geographical focus. This systematic review, covering studies from 2009 to 2023, examines the use of different climate models to predict precipitation and temperature trends in cities. We organized the studies into two primary categories based on the type and geographic focus of climate models used in this field. Using deductive content analysis, our analysis found that researchers used combined neural networks and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models the most. Time series models, particularly those optimized with machine learning, demonstrated superior accuracy compared to other models. Furthermore, scenarios such as SSP5–8.5 and RCP8.5 projected significant changes in precipitation and temperature across cities in Europe, North America, Asia, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These changes could intensify the frequency of heatwaves, floods, and droughts in urban areas by the end of the 21st century. A key gap in the existing literature is the insufficient analysis of small cities, indicating a promising area for future research. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers in climate change adaptation and urban resilience planning.