Operational risk assessment of transmission Systems: A review
Zunaira Nazir, Math Bollen
Abstract
The deterministic techniques in use for transmission-grid planning and operation have resulted in a high reliability, but they have certain limitations that could be removed by applying stochastic techniques. This paper presents a detailed review of one such stochastic technique: operational risk assessment. A general procedural model of operational risk assessment is introduced, based on one simple equation, highlighting the important elements. The research trends are presented for each of these elements: contingency definition and calculating the probability of a contingency case; contingency filtration methods; defining and calculating the severity factor. Next to an overview of the state-of-the-art, this paper contains a detailed discussion section, where the most important research gaps are identified. Emphasis is especially on bridging the gap between research and practical applications of operational risk assessment. The paper closes with a future outlook on operational risk assessment and its applications.