Exploring the nexus between LULC transformation, land surface temperature, and drought in a rapidly urbanizing landscape: The case of Multan
Seemal Naeem, Syed Amer Mehmood
Abstract
Anthropogenic activities have significantly changed land use and land cover (LULC), especially in areas with significant population expansion. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of LULC and Land Surface Temperature (LST) of Multan were monitored. The research was carried out for the years 2001, 2011, and 2020 using Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI images. While the dataset concludes in 2020, the observed patterns offer a critical long-term baseline for assessing ongoing urbanization and food security risks in the region. The urban area has expanded by 3.23%, whereas forest and vegetation areas have decreased by 4.31% and 9.8%, respectively. Additionally, a weak relationship with between LST and NDVI was observed, whereas a more significant relationship was noted with NDBI. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) indices were computed using climatological data to observe the drought status. A consistent drying trend was evident in both indices, highlighting a progressive increase in drought severity over the study period. The study findings highlight the influence of rapid population increase as the primary factor driving urban food insecurity and climate change in the study area.