A multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis approach for evaluating the robustness of renewable energy sources in European countries
Jakub Więckowski, Bartłomiej Kizielewicz, Wojciech Sałabun
Abstract
The necessity of making reliable decisions is exceptionally important in the field of sustainable development, particularly when evaluating the management of renewable energy sources. A thorough analysis becomes imperative in complex decision problems where various factors influence outcomes. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods have emerged as valuable tools for addressing such challenges, enabling decision-makers to navigate through conflicting criteria and make informed choices. Combined with sensitivity analysis approaches, comprehensive assessments can be achieved, ensuring the robustness of decision-making processes. To increase the reliability of the results, different aspects of input data fluctuations should be examined to provide a broader view of the stability of the results. This paper proposes a comprehensive multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis approach to assess the robustness of renewable energy source (RES) development in selected European countries. By evaluating RES management in terms of electricity and energy consumption and generation, the study addresses key components of sustainable development. It offers a holistic perspective on result reliability and stability by analyzing five sensitivity dimensions: a comparative analysis of four MCDA methods, varying criteria weights scenarios, probabilistic modifications, criteria relevance identification, and ranking stability. This approach enhances decision-making in sustainable energy development, providing valuable insights for policymakers on prioritizing sustainable technologies. The provided open-source implementation promotes transparency and accessibility in decision support systems.