Enhanced GAN-Based Joint Wind-Solar-Load Scenario Generation With Extreme Weather Labelling
Hongzhen Wang, Boyu Qin, Shidong Hong, Xi Xu, Yiwei Su, Tingxiang Lu, Tao Ding
Abstract
The high penetration of renewable energy and frequent extreme weather events bring significant uncertainty to the operation and planning of power systems. The extreme scenarios exhibit high impact and low probability characteristics, posing a challenge in providing sufficient and reliable samples for power system decision-making. The existing scenario generation methods struggle to balance the generation efficiency and interpretability. The causality between meteorological factors and power system operation has not provided effective guidance for the extreme scenario generation. In this paper, firstly, the mechanism analysis and sample construction of extreme scenarios were achieved through meteorological factor extraction, meteorological-scenario causality test and scenario clustering. Secondly, an enhanced GAN model considering training stability is established. The physical constraints of power systems are used to ensure the effectiveness of generated scenarios. Finally, a statistical analysis considering the individuals and the whole samples is conducted. The accuracy evaluation method of the generated scenarios is proposed. The robustness of the model is validated based on accuracy. The results indicate that the generated scenario have statistical consistency and high accuracy.