The application of analytical hierarchy process to assess adaptation strategies for flood and landslides risks: A case study of a multi-risk area community
Diana Caporale, Anna Rinaldi
Abstract
The increasing frequency of flood-related emergencies has heightened discussions on climate adaptation and risk management. Despite investments in infrastructure, early warning systems, urban planning improvements, and awareness initiatives, sustained attention and action are essential. The efficacy of preventive measures relies heavily on local community decisions and their cooperation with authorities, impacting the entire risk management cycle. This study investigates the factors influencing flood and landslide adaptation strategies and their perception by citizens in vulnerable areas, aiming to identify key variables that shape citizen behaviour for effective planning and management of adaptation actions. Focusing on Ischia Island, Italy, a multi-risk area, the study applied the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in focus groups to achieve three objectives: i) Highlight the critical role of citizen perceptions in forming adaptation strategies, emphasizing the need for cohesive efforts among policymakers, experts, and communities to enhance resilience. ii) Examine residents' views on flood and landslide risks to understand local concerns and vulnerabilities. iii) Use multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the importance of factors shaping adaptation strategies, providing a systematic framework for decision-making in disaster risk management. Findings reveal an optimism bias in respondents' perceptions of their home security despite recognizing the area's vulnerability and mistrust in authorities. Environmental and social factors are deemed most important, with environmental strategies focused on harm reduction and local environment enhancement, and social strategies emphasizing information dissemination and mortality reduction. This research offers valuable insights into community perceptions and factors influencing adaptation strategies for flood and landslide risks. • Application of AHP in Ischia evaluates flood adaptation strategies. • Study identifies optimism bias in flood risk perception. • Environmental and social factors significantly influence adaptation. • Mistrust in authorities impedes effective risk management. • Community engagement is crucial for enhancing flood resilience.