Prostaglandin E-Major Urinary Metabolite Predicts Relapse in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis in Clinical Remission
Natsuki Ishida, Kiichi Sugiura, Takahiro Miyazu, Satoshi Tamura, Satoshi Suzuki, Shinya Tani, Mihoko Yamade, Moriya Iwaizumi, Yasushi Hamaya, Satoshi Osawa, Takahisa Furuta, Ken Sugimoto
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Prostaglandin E-major urinary metabolite (PGE-MUM) is a novel biomarker reflecting endoscopic activity in ulcerative colitis (UC). However, there are no studies investigating the efficacy of PGE-MUM as a biomarker for predicting relapse. We investigated whether PGE-MUM can predict clinical relapse of UC. METHODS: The measurement of PGE-MUM and endoscopic evaluation were performed in 70 patients with UC in clinical remission. The optimal cutoff values predicting relapse and relapse-free rate were analyzed. RESULTS: Sixteen patients (22.9%) relapsed during the 12-month follow-up. The median PGE-MUM value of relapsed patients at entry was significantly higher than that of patients in clinical remission (P = 0.008). The cutoff value of PGE-MUM predicting future relapse was 25.2 μg/g Cr by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.721 (95% confidence interval: 0.556-0.886). The relapse-free rate of patients with PGE-MUM ≥25.2 μg/g Cr was significantly lower than that in patients with PGE-MUM <25.2 μg/g Cr (log-rank test: P < 0.001). The ROC analysis of UC patients with disease duration more than 1-8 years showed that duration of more than 5 years had the largest area under the ROC curve 0.821 (95% confidence interval: 0.583-1.000) and that the optimal cutoff value was 26.3 μg/g Cr. DISCUSSION: PGE-MUM is a reliable biomarker for predicting future relapse, particularly in UC patients with long-disease duration.