Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories
Julius B. Kirkegaard, Kim Sneppen
Abstract
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)OverdispersionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Basic reproduction numberConfidence interval2019-20 coronavirus outbreakDemographyEpidemic modelComputer scienceStatisticsBiologyGeographyMedicineMathematicsVirologyCount dataInfectious disease (medical specialty)PopulationPoisson distributionDiseaseSociologyPathologyOutbreakCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsData-Driven Disease Surveillance