[Study on assessing early epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 epidemic in China].
Qianqian Song, Han Zhao, Li‐Qun Fang, Wei Liu, Chuang Zheng, Yong Zhang
Abstract
The Gamma distribution fits both the generation interval and incubation period best, and the mean value of generation interval is 1.02 day longer than that of incubation period. The relatively high basic reproduction number indicates that the epidemic is still serious; Based on our analysis, the turning point of the epidemic would be seen on 26 January, the growth rate would be lower afterwards.
Topics & Concepts
Incubation periodGeneration timeCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Basic reproduction numberWeibull distributionStatisticsConfidence intervalSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)MathematicsDemographyIncidence (geometry)Gamma distributionEpidemic modelIncubationBiologyMedicineDiseasePopulationInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicineGeometrySociologyBiochemistryCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesZoonotic diseases and public health