Predictors of long-term clinical outcomes after TIPS: An ALTA group study
Yael R. Nobel, Justin Boike, Nikhilesh R. Mazumder, Bartley Thornburg, Rachel S. Hoffman, K. Kolli, Michael Fallon, Jennifer C. Lai, Giuseppi Morelli, Erin K. Spengler, Adnan Said, Archita P. Desai, Sonali Paul, Aparna Goel, Kelly Hu, Catherine Frenette, Dyanna L. Gregory, Cynthia Padilla, Yuan Zhang, Lisa B. VanWagner, Elizabeth C. Verna, Advancing Liver Therapeutic Approaches (ALTA) Study Group
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: While TIPS is traditionally considered a bridge to liver transplant (LT), some patients achieve long-term transplant-free survival (TFS) with TIPS alone. Prognosis and need for LT should not only be assessed at time of procedure, but also re-evaluated in patients with favorable early outcomes. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Adult recipients of TIPS in the multicenter advancing liver therapeutic approaches retrospective cohort study were included (N=1127 patients; 2040 person-years follow-up). Adjusted competing risk regressions were used to assess factors associated with long-term post-TIPS clinical outcomes at the time of procedure and 6 months post-TIPS. MELD-Na at TIPS was significantly associated with post-TIPS mortality (subdistribution hazards ratio of death 1.1 [ p =0.42], 1.3 [ p =0.04], and 1.7 [ p <0.01] for MELD-Na 15-19, 20-24, and ≥25 relative to MELD-Na <15, respectively). MELD 3.0 was also associated with post-TIPS outcomes. Among the 694 (62%) patients who achieved early (6 mo) post-TIPS TFS, rates of long-term TFS were 88% at 1 year and 57% at 3 years post-TIPS. Additionally, a within-individual increase in MELD-Na score of >3 points from TIPS to 6 months post-TIPS was significantly associated with long-term mortality, regardless of initial MELD-Na score (subdistribution hazards ratio of death 1.8, p <0.01). For patients with long-term post-TIPS TFS, rates of complications of the TIPS or portal hypertension were low. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with early post-TIPS TFS, prognosis and need for LT should be reassessed, informed by postprocedure changes in MELD-Na and clinical status. For selected patients, "destination TIPS" without LT may offer long-term survival with freedom from portal hypertensive complications.