Scaling SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations to population estimates of infection
Edward H. Kaplan, Alessandro Zulli, Marcela Granados Sánchez, Jordan Peccia
Abstract
Monitoring the progression of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks requires accurate estimation of the unobservable fraction of the population infected over time in addition to the observed numbers of COVID-19 cases, as the latter present a distorted view of the pandemic due to changes in test frequency and coverage over time. The objective of this report is to describe and illustrate an approach that produces representative estimates of the unobservable cumulative incidence of infection by scaling the daily concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from the consistent population contribution of fecal material to the sewage collection system.
Topics & Concepts
UnobservableCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PopulationPandemic2019-20 coronavirus outbreakOutbreakSewageWastewaterEnvironmental scienceStatisticsBiologyMedicineEnvironmental healthVirologyMathematicsEnvironmental engineeringEconometricsInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseSARS-CoV-2 detection and testingSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchHealthcare and Environmental Waste Management