Abundant Material Consumption Based on a Learning Curve for Photovoltaic toward Net‐Zero Emissions by 2050
Robert Underwood, Moonyong Kim, Storm Drury, Yuchao Zhang, Li Wang, Catherine Chan, Brett Hallam
Abstract
The global cumulative photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity is now over 1 TW. While this is an impressive amount of PV growth, it contributes less than 3% of total electricity generation and, therefore, requires significantly more PV to decarbonize the electricity sector completely. In order to achieve this decarbonization sustainably, all factors must be considered, including the extraction and purification of abundant materials. Based on conservative and ambitious future PV production scenarios and learning rate (LR) for material consumption reduction, the material demands for the future are projected. The concept of LR is applied to estimate the reduced material consumption based on the “maturity” of PV technology or the cumulative installed PV capacity. Herein, it is suggested that abundant materials like copper, concrete, and aluminum may face shortages if PV production follows the broad electrification scenario. Steel, in comparison, likely does not encounter any material shortages. Nevertheless, the work here demonstrates that the demand for even abundant materials should be minimized to decarbonize energy usage and mitigate climate change sustainably.