Does social trust slow down or speed up the transmission of COVID-19?
Jungwon Min
Abstract
Social trust has been an important mechanism in overcoming crises throughout history. Several societies are now emphasizing its role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to investigate how variations in social trust across 68 countries are related to the transmission speed of COVID-19. Specifically, using cross-national index data from the World Value Survey, the study tests how variations in social trust across countries generate different time durations at which each country reaches the peak in terms of increases in new infections of COVID-19. Using data drawn between December 31, 2019 and July 31, 2020, this study found that in countries with a high level of social trust, particularly trust among ingroup members, or with a narrower or wider range than the intermediate range of trustees, the number of new infections tended to reach the first peak within a shorter time duration than in other countries. These results imply that in such societies, on the one hand, high cooperation among people to achieve common goals and strong compliance to social norms may allow them to begin neutralizing COVID-19 faster. On the other hand, however, the low risk perception and prevalence of cohesive relationships among people may lead to speedier transmission of COVID-19 before neutralization takes place.