Predicting Soil Fertility in Semi-Arid Agroecosystems Using Interpretable Machine Learning Models: A Sustainable Approach for Data-Sparse Regions
Nurullah Acır
Abstract
The accurate assessment of soil fertility is critical for guiding nutrient management and promoting sustainable agriculture in semi-arid agroecosystems. In this study, a machine learning-based Soil Fertility Index (SFI) model was developed using regularized regression techniques to evaluate fertility across a dryland maize-growing region in southeastern Türkiye. A total of 64 composite soil samples were collected from the Batman Plain, characterized by alkaline and salinity-prone conditions. Five soil chemical indicators, electrical conductivity (EC), pH, organic matter (OM), zinc (Zn), and iron (Fe), were selected for SFI estimation using a standardized rating approach. The dataset was randomly split into training (80%) and test (20%) subsets to calibrate and validate the models. Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic Net regression models were employed to predict SFI and assess variable importance. Among these, the Lasso model achieved the highest predictive accuracy on test data (R2 = 0.746, RMSE = 0.060), retaining only EC and Zn as significant predictors. Ridge and Elastic Net captured OM and pH, though their contributions were minimal (|β| < 0.01). Spatial predictions showed moderate alignment with observed SFI values (range: 0.48–0.76), but all models underestimated high-fertility zones (>0.69), likely due to coefficient shrinkage. Despite its simplicity, the Lasso model offered superior interpretability and spatial resolution. The results reveal the potential of interpretable machine learning for supporting sustainable, site-specific fertility assessment and informed nutrient management in data-scarce and environmentally vulnerable regions.