Caution Warranted: Using the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Model for Predicting the Course of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Nicholas P. Jewell, Joseph A. Lewnard, Britta L. Jewell
Abstract
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model for predicting the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has attracted considerable attention, including from the U.S. government. The appearance of certainty of model estimates is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead, but caution is warranted regarding the validity and usefulness of the model projections for policymakers.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)MedicinePandemicGovernment (linguistics)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakDemographyFamily medicineLibrary scienceDiseaseVirologyPathologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)SociologyOutbreakPhilosophyComputer scienceLinguisticsCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 and healthcare impacts