Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US
Gregory A. Wellenius, Swapnil Vispute, Valeria Espinosa, Alex Fabrikant, Thomas C. Tsai, Jonathan Hennessy, Andrew Dai, Brian Williams, Krishna Gadepalli, Adam Boulanger, Adam Pearce, Chaitanya Kamath, Arran Schlosberg, Catherine Bendebury, Chinmoy Mandayam, Charlotte Stanton, Shailesh Bavadekar, Christopher Pluntke, Damien Desfontaines, Benjamin H. Jacobson, Zan Armstrong, Bryant Gipson, Royce Wilson, Andrew Widdowson, Katherine Chou, Andrew Oplinger, Tomer Shekel, Ashish K. Jha, Evgeniy Gabrilovich
Abstract
Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.