Evaluating the impact of Ethiopia’s green legacy initiative on land use/cover change in Gubalafto district using google earth engine
Setiye Abebaw Tefera, Vijaya Lakshmi Thatiparthi
Abstract
Ethiopia's Green Legacy Initiative (GLI), launched in 2019, aims to combat environmental degradation through large-scale afforestation. This study quantitatively evaluates GLI's impact on land use/cover (LU/C) dynamics (2013–2024) in Gubalafto District, North-eastern Ethiopia, using Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine (GEE) employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis. The RF classifier achieved high accuracy (OA = 99% for 2016–2024 and OA = 73% in 2013) in mapping six LU/C classes. Key findings reveal significant ecological shifts: woodland increased by 41.85 km 2 (net gain), largely through conversion from agricultural land (76.93 km 2 ) and bareland (16.06 km 2 ). Forest cover fluctuated, declining from 16.43% (165.96 km 2 ) in 2013 to 14.60% (147.47 km 2 ) in 2024; this might be influenced by armed conflict post-2020 that disrupted restoration efforts. The NDVI analysis showed high-density vegetation rising from 0.98% (9.89 km 2 ) in 2013 to 9.38% (94.71 km 2 ) in 2024, peaking in 2020 (NDVI max: 0.95). Despite the nationwide planting of 38.6 billion seedlings, district-level survival rates averaged only 39.80% (range: 7.59–76.50%), indicating a critical gap between planting efforts and sustainable outcomes. The study demonstrates GLI's effectiveness in woodland recovery and greening but highlights vulnerabilities from socio-political instability and inadequate seedling maintenance. Prioritizing survival rates through improved species selection, irrigation, community engagement, and integrating GLI within broader peace-building frameworks are indeed to ensure long-term ecological resilience.