Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach
Ick Jin
Abstract
<hr /> <p><big>This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.</big></p>
Topics & Concepts
Climate changeEmission intensityClimate policyEnvironmental scienceCarbon fibersNatural resource economicsEnvironmental economicsEconomicsComputer scienceEngineeringGeologyAlgorithmExcitationComposite numberOceanographyElectrical engineeringEnvironmental Impact and SustainabilityClimate Change Policy and EconomicsEnergy, Environment, Economic Growth