Climate seasonality and lower respiratory tract diseases: a predictive model for pediatric hospitalizations
Juliana Meira de Vasconcelos Xavier, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva, Ricardo Alves de Olinda, Luana Andrade Lima Querino, Perla Sonaly Bispo Araujo, Loyane Figueiredo Cavalcanti Lima, Ramon Silva de Sousa, Bruna Nunes Costa Lima Rosado
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: to analyze the climate seasonality of respiratory diseases in children aged 0-9 years and present a model to predict hospital admissions for 2021 to 2022. METHODS: verify, in a temporal manner, the correlation of admissions for pneumonia, bronchitis/bronchiolitis, and asthma with meteorological variables, aiming to demonstrate seasonality with the adjustment of temporal series models. RESULTS: there was a seasonal effect in the number of registered cases for all diseases, with the highest incidence of registrations in the months of autumn and winter. CONCLUSIONS: it was possible to observe a tendency towards a decrease in the registration of pneumonia cases; In cases of admissions due to bronchitis and bronchiolitis, there was a slight tendency towards an increase; and, in occurrence rates of asthma, there was no variation in the number of cases.