Changes in temporal inequality of precipitation extremes over China due to anthropogenic forcings
Weili Duan, Shan Zou, Nikolaos Christidis, Nathalie Schaller, Yaning Chen, Netrananda Sahu, Zhi Li, Gonghuan Fang, Botao Zhou
Abstract
Abstract Based on the Gini-coefficients, this study has presented an analysis of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on the temporal inequality (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) of precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), intensity (SDII), and extremes (R95p and RX5day) at national and regional scales (eight regions) in China. A positive anthropogenic influence on the temporal inequality is found for precipitation extremes over China, especially in southern regions during the period 1961–2005. Projections of future precipitation indices except R95p have a stepped upward trend in temporal precipitation variability with increasing anthropogenic forcing in most regions of China under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Except for Southern China (SC) and SWC2, R95p has a significant decrease in the future, and the largest decrease is up to 29.5% in Northwest China under SSP370. Results obtained from this study offer insights into temporal variability of precipitation extremes and help policy makers for managing water-related disasters.