Considering waning immunity to better explain dengue dynamics
Leonardo López, Richard Paúl, Van‐Mai Cao‐Lormeau, Xavier Rodó
Abstract
Life-long serotype-specific immunity following dengue virus infection may not always occur, but the true extent of this effect is unknown. Analysis of more than 20 years of monotypic epidemics in the isolated French Polynesian islands revealed that whilst the risk of symptomatic dengue infection did conform to the classical paradigms of homotypic immunity and increased disease risk in heterotypic secondary infections, incorporation of waning immunity improved the ability of epidemiological models to capture the observed epidemic dynamics. Not only does this show how inclusion of waning immunity into classical models can reveal important facets of the immune response to natural dengue virus infection, it also has significant ramifications for vaccine development and implementation in dengue endemic areas.