Climatic vulnerability and adaptation strategies for vegetable production in the Northern Himalayan region

Abstract

Vegetable production in the low and mid hills is highly vulnerable to climatic vulnerability. The study evaluated the Agricultural Climatic Vulnerability Index (ACVI) for 51 blocks in the regions using the IPCC AR4 conceptual framework. The developmental blocks were categorized into three groups (Low, Moderate and Highly Vulnerable) to collect the primary data. A multistage stratified random sampling technique was employed, using a pre-tested questionnaire. The ACVI findings reveal that the Balh Valley is the most climate-vulnerable block, while Paonta Sahib is the least. Vulnerability is primarily driven by the temperature variations in the Kharif and Rabi seasons of exposure dimension. The farm income analysis shows a decline in crop feasibility from low to high-vulnerability groups. Maximum temperature significantly reduced net crop returns, except in the case of cauliflower. Rainfall negatively impacted the profitability of crops such as tomatoes, capsicum and peas. However, an increase in the minimum temperature significantly boosted vegetable crop profitability in vulnerable groups. A balanced use of fertilizer and pesticide application, crop diversification and increased irrigation coverage significantly mitigated climate change impacts across all vulnerability groups and improved crop profitability. Among the crops studied, tomato exhibited the highest carbon sequestration potential, followed by capsicum, pea, French beans and cauliflower. A significant variation was observed in the carbon sequestration level across vulnerability groups. Farmers in these regions have adopted various adaptation strategies, including crop diversification (76.11%), nutrient management (71.11 %), varietal changes (65.56 %), and water conservation (65.56 %). To enhance resilience, the study emphasizes the importance of improved technical knowledge, capacity building, adoption of better agronomic practices, increased financial support, and comprehensive stakeholder consultation within the agricultural and allied sectors. • Vulnerability tends to rise with increase in the altitude in the low and mid hills of Himachal Pradesh. • Moving from LVG to HVG, production costs consistently trend upward, with a noticeable decline in net farm income across all crop types. • The breakeven point for yield and income was increased as an increase in the vulnerability level • Climatic vulnerability increases, and there is a significant increase in carbon sequestration facilitated by vegetable crops. • Employment of diverse climate-resilient adaptation strategies, and their intensity of adoption varies across vulnerable groups.

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