Population attributable proportion and number of cancer cases attributed to potentially modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020
Saeed Nemati, Elham Mohebbi, Fatemeh Toorang, Maryam Hadji, Bayan Hosseini, Elnaz Saeedi, Sepideh Abdi, Azin Nahvijou, Farin Kamangar, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Ghanbari Motlagh, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Ali Akbar Haghdoost, Farid Najafi, Mahdi Sheikh, Reza Malekzadeh, Kazem Zendehdel
Abstract
In the current study, we aimed to calculate the fraction of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for established cancer risk factors using three data sources: the national cancer incidence reports, relative risks extracted from global and national meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence from national/subnational population-based surveys. In addition to overall cancers, the PAFs were estimated separately for each cancer site among men and women. Overall, 32.6% of cancers in 2020 in Iran were attributable to known risk factors. The PAF in men (40.2%) was twice as high as in women (21.1%). Cigarette smoking (15.4%), being overweight (5.0%), opium use (3.9%) and H. pylori infection (3.8%) were the leading causes of cancers. For men, the highest PAFs belonged to cigarette smoking (26.3%), opium use (6.8%) and being overweight (3.1%), while for women, the highest PAFs belonged to being overweight (7.2%), H. pylori infection (2.7%) and cigarette smoking (2.7%). Among Iranian men and women, the PAFs of waterpipe smoking were 2% and 0.9%, respectively. A third of incident cancers in Iran are due to modifiable exposures, mainly cigarette smoking, being overweight, and H. pylori infection. Opium consumption and waterpipe smoking collectively accounted for 8.8% of cancer occurrence in men and 1.3% in women in Iran. These emerging risk factors should be taken into consideration in future PAF studies.