Provincial Contributions Analysis of the Slowdownin the Growth of China's Industrial CO<sub>2</sub> Emissionsin the “New Normal”
Xu Song, Junsong Jia, HU Wen-hui, Min Ju
Abstract
The industrial sector has been the largest CO 2 emitter in China. The purpose of this paper is to explore the reasons for the slowdown in the growth of industrial CO 2 emissions (ICE) since China's economy entered a new development model in 2012 -the "new normal". First, we overviewed the ICE status in China from 2007 to 2017. Then, we utilized the Tapio model to analyze the decoupling relationship between ICE and industrial economy. Finally, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was used to explore the related driving factors of ICE change and the contributions of each province to China's ICE increase. The results showed that: (1) the growth rates of China's ICE were 41.34% and 6.7% in 2007-2012 and 2012-2017, respectively, a signal that the growth of ICE has significantly slowed down in the "new normal". The spatial distribution in ICE has gradually evolved from high emissions in northern coastal regions and low emissions in other regions to high emissions in northern regions and low emissions in southern regions. In addition, the gap of ICE has gradually widened among provinces.