Minimal Residual Disease–Based End Point for Accelerated Assessment of Clinical Trials in Multiple Myeloma: A Pooled Analysis of Individual Patient Data From Multiple Randomized Trials
Qian Shi, Bruno Paiva, Levi Pederson, Natalie Dimier, Ela Talpes, Thomas J. Prior, Alberto Órfão, Philippe Moreau, Pieter Sonneveld, Shaji Kumar, Jesse G. Dixon, Reshma Patel, Blake Bartlett, Jordan M. Schecter, Philip L. McCarthy, Dirk Hose, Anja Seckinger, Mattia D’Agostino, Hartmut Goldschmidt, Stefania Oliva, Roger G. Owen, Kenneth C. Anderson, Jesús F. San Miguel, Brian G.M. Durie, Nikhil C. Munshi, on behalf of the International Independent Team for Endpoint Approval of Myeloma Minimal Residual Disease (i2TEAMM) Group
Abstract
PURPOSE Newly approved drugs and combinations treating multiple myeloma (MM) have resulted in substantial improvements in patients' survival. To deliver rapid access to newer therapies, an earlier end point to expedite clinical trials is needed. Our objective was to evaluate the minimal residual disease–negative complete response (MRD-CR) as an intermediate end point for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in newly diagnosed (ND) transplant-eligible (NDTE) patients, ND transplant-ineligible (NDTinE) patients, and patients with relapsed/refractory (RR) MM. PATIENTS AND METHODS Individual patient data from 20 randomized multicenter trials were collected. Eleven studies (4,773 patients) with sufficient data were analyzed to evaluate whether 9- or 12-month MRD-CR classified at a 10 –5 threshold could be reasonably likely to predict the clinical benefit of new agents regarding PFS and OS. Global odds ratio (OR) was estimated using the bivariate Plackett Copula model. Supportive evaluation included correlations of the treatment effects on MRD-CR end points and PFS/OS, evaluated by both linear regression ( R 2 weighted least squared ) and Copula ( R 2 Copula ) models. RESULTS The analysis demonstrated that both 9- and 12-month MRD-CR strongly correlated with PFS at patient level in NDTE patients, NDTinE patients, and patients with RRMM. Global ORs ranged from 3.06 to 16.24, all with 95% CIs excluding 1.0. Encouraging trial-level correlations ( R 2 , 0.61-0.70) were observed by pooling three populations and were stronger ( R 2 , 0.67-0.78) in the ND population. Similar results were observed for OS. CONCLUSION Our findings provided the support for use of MRD-CR classified at a 10 –5 threshold at either 9 or 12 months after starting of the treatment, as an intermediate end point to support accelerated approvals, in future trials in NDTE patients, NDTinE patients, and patients with RRMM.