Is the symbiotic recurrent nova T CrB late? Recent photometric evolution and comparison with past pre-outburst behaviour
Jaroslav Merc, Ł. Wyrzykowski, P. G. Beck, P. Mikołajczyk, Krzysztof Kotysz, Paweł Zieliński, S. Zoła, Sebastian Kurowski, W. Ogłoza, M. Dróżdż, Charles Galdies, Franz-Josef Hambsch, Stephen M. Brincat, B. Joachimczyk, M. Bronikowski, Jure Japelj, Matej Mihelcic, J. M. Carrasco, U. Burgaz, A. Gurgul, K. Bąkowska, Piotr Hofbauer, K. Szyszka, J. Golonka, J. K. T. Qvam, J. Zdanavičius, E. Pakštienė, M. Maskoliūnas, Vytautas Čepas, Uliana Pylypenko, D. Moździerski, Franky Dubois, S. Vanaverbeke, J. M. Olszewska, A. Liakos, M. Stojanović, G. Damljanović, Adam Popowicz, Mateusz Marzec, Magdalena Badura, Bartosz Gil, Alicja Pucek, Aleksandra Kowalska, Mateusz Szklarz, T. Kvernadze, A. Reguitti, Supachai Awiphan, M. Dennefeld, K. Gazeas
Abstract
ABSTRACT T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence time-scale of approximately 80 yr, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the ‘superactive’ phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a ‘pre-eruption dip’, deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event.