The 3‐Machines Energy Transition Model: Exploring the Energy Frontiers for Restoring a Habitable Climate
Harald Desing, Andreas Gerber, Roland Hischier, Patrick Wäger, Rolf Widmer
Abstract
Abstract To stabilize the climate, we need to urgently decarbonize our society and remove excess CO 2 from the atmosphere. Ambitions for the transformation are ultimately limited by bio‐physical constraints, which cannot be transgressed even if all economic and societal obstacles could be overcome. Even though it is essential to know what transformation pathways are still feasible, there is a lack of studies and models exploring bio‐physical frontiers for climate action. In this paper, we take a first step to explore the energy frontier by introducing the “3‐machines energy transition model.” This simplified representation of the global energy system includes energy feedbacks and is constrained by the maximum renewable energy potential. Simulation experiments with the model show that with most ambitious actions global peak heating may exceed 1.5°C with a chance of 14%. Simultaneously, it is still energetically possible to return to 350 ppm this century, which is considered to be a safe level for atmospheric CO 2 concentration. While these energy‐constrained transformation pathways show that the climate can still be stabilized with a fair chance, they also illustrate the urgency and far‐reaching change required in society.