Leading dietary determinants identified using machine learning techniques and a healthy diet score for changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in children: a longitudinal analysis
Xianwen Shang, Yanping Li, Haiquan Xu, Qian Zhang, Ailing Liu, Songming Du, Hongwei Guo, Guansheng Ma
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying leading dietary determinants for cardiometabolic risk (CMR) factors is urgent for prioritizing interventions in children. We aimed to identify leading dietary determinants for the change in CMR and create a healthy diet score (HDS) to predict CMR in children. METHODS: We included 5676 children aged 6-13 years in the final analysis with physical examinations, blood tests, and diets assessed at baseline and one year later. CMR score (CMRS) was computed by summing Z-scores of waist circumference, an average of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), fasting glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, multiplying by - 1), and triglycerides. Machine learning was used to identify leading dietary determinants for CMR and an HDS was then computed. RESULTS: The nine leading predictors for CMRS were refined grains, seafood, fried foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, wheat, red meat other than pork, rice, fungi and algae, and roots and tubers with the contribution ranging from 3.9 to 19.6% of the total variance. Diets high in seafood, rice, and red meat other than pork but low in other six food groups were associated with a favorable change in CMRS. The HDS was computed based on these nine dietary factors. Children with HDS ≥8 had a higher decrease in CMRS (β (95% CI): - 1.02 (- 1.31, - 0.73)), BMI (- 0.08 (- 0.16, - 0.00)), SBP (- 0.46 (- 0.58, - 0.34)), DBP (- 0.46 (- 0.58, - 0.34)), mean arterial pressure (- 0.50 (- 0.62, - 0.38)), fasting glucose (- 0.22 (- 0.32, - 0.11)), insulin (- 0.52 (- 0.71, - 0.32)), and HOMA-IR (- 0.55 (- 0.73, - 0.36)) compared to those with HDS ≦3. Improved HDS during follow-up was associated with favorable changes in CMRS, BMI, percent body fat, SBP, DBP, mean arterial pressure, HDL-C, fasting glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR. CONCLUSION: Diets high in seafood, rice, and red meat other than pork and low in refined grains, fried foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, and wheat are leading healthy dietary factors for metabolic health in children. HDS is strongly predictive of CMR factors.