The Potential Impact of Nuclear Conflict on Ocean Acidification
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Cheryl S. Harrison, Holly C. Olivarez, Charles Bardeen, O. B. Toon, Joshua Coupe, Alan Robock, Tyler Rohr, Samantha Stevenson
Abstract
Abstract We demonstrate that the global cooling resulting from a range of nuclear conflict scenarios would temporarily increase the pH in the surface ocean by up to 0.06 units over a 5‐year period, briefly alleviating the decline in pH associated with ocean acidification. Conversely, the global cooling dissolves atmospheric carbon into the upper ocean, driving a 0.1 to 0.3 unit decrease in the aragonite saturation state ( ) that persists for 10 years. The peak anomaly in pH occurs 2 years post conflict, while the anomaly peaks 4‐ to 5‐years post conflict. The decrease in would exacerbate a primary threat of ocean acidification: the inability of marine calcifying organisms to maintain their shells/skeletons in a corrosive environment. Our results are based on sensitivity simulations conducted with a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model integrated under various black carbon (soot) external forcings. Our findings suggest that regional nuclear conflict may have ramifications for global ocean acidification.