Association between environmental factors and dengue incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic: a nationwide time-series study
Masumi Sugeno, Erin C. Kawazu, Hyun Kim, Virasack Banouvong, Nazife Pehlivan, Daniel Gilfillan, Ho Kim, Yoonhee Kim, Ho Kim, Yoonhee Kim
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease of global public health concern, with an increasing number of cases and a widening area of endemicity in recent years. Meteorological factors influence dengue transmission. This study aimed to estimate the association between meteorological factors (i.e., temperature and rainfall) and dengue incidence and the effect of altitude on this association in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). METHODS: We used weekly dengue incidence and meteorological data, including temperature and rainfall, from 18 jurisdictions in Lao PDR from 2015 to 2019. A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to account for the nonlinear and delayed associations between dengue incidence and meteorological variables, adjusting for long-term time trends and autocorrelation. RESULTS: percentile (24 °C). The cumulative relative risk for the weekly total rainfall over 12 weeks peaked at 82 mm (relative risk = 1.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.91-3.40) relative to no rain. However, the risk decreased significantly when heavy rain exceeded 200 mm. We found no evidence that altitude modified these associations. CONCLUSIONS: We found a lagged nonlinear relationship between meteorological factors and dengue incidence in Lao PDR. These findings can be used to develop climate-based early warning systems and provide insights for improving vector control in the country.