Landslide susceptibility assessment of the Wanzhou district: Merging landslide susceptibility modelling (LSM) with InSAR-derived ground deformation map
Chao Zhou, Lulu Gan, Ying Cao, Yue Wang, Samuele Segoni, Xuguo Shi, Mahdi Motagh, Ramesh P. Singh
Abstract
• We proposed a methodology for improving landslide susceptibility assessment in rapidly growing urban areas. • We analyzed the impact of base-learner and ensemble strategy on ensemble machine learning performance. • Coupling InSAR-derived ground deformation can reduce the biased estimation of catalog-based LSM. • We revealed landslides development patterns and its causal factors. The prevalent catalog-based Landslide Susceptibility Modelling (LSM) operates under the assumption that future landslide occurrences mirror past and current patterns. Due to growing urban expansion and climate change, certain landslides follow new patterns of occurrence, disrupting the foundational assumption of catalog-based LSM and leading to constraints in the effectiveness of traditional susceptibility maps. Here, to address this problem, we proposed a method to produce more accurate and dynamic landslide susceptibility maps by coupling advanced Ensemble Machine Learning (EML) and Multi-Temporal Interferometric SAR (MT-InSAR). The Wanzhou District in Three Gorges Reservoir area of China is considered as the test site. The landslide catalog and multiple EML methods are used for the preparation of the preliminary susceptibility map. We have also compared and analyzed the impact of ensemble strategies (homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble) and base-learners on the modelling performance. Subsequently, Sentinel-1 data from 2018 to 2020, analyzed using MT-InSAR approach, are used to map ground deformation rates. We outline the active slopes and deduce the relationship between the deformation of Matou landslide and triggering factors. The final susceptibility map is generated by coupling catalog-based susceptibility and ground deformation rate maps through an empirical assessment matrix. Our results show that the causal factors of distance to rivers, distance to faults, annual rainfall and distance to roads are basic parameters for landslide spatial development; Heterogeneous EML methods outperform the homogeneous, and the more base-learner types provide better performance. InSAR-acquired deformation rates corrected overestimation and underestimation errors in the landslide susceptibility map produced by catalog-based method. Our proposed method is capable of improving the accuracy and timeliness of susceptibility map, providing a useful instrument to better assess landslide risk scenarios in rapidly changing environments.