Longitudinal Model-Based Biomarker Analysis of Exposure-Response Relationships in Adults with Pulmonary Tuberculosis
Andrew Gewitz, Belén P. Solans, William R. Mac Kenzie, Chad Heilig, William C. Whitworth, John L. Johnson, Pheona Nsubuga, Susan E. Dorman, Marc Weiner, Radojka M. Savić
Abstract
study were to characterize longitudinal TTP profiles and to identify individual patient characteristics associated with delayed time to culture conversion. In order to do so, a nonlinear mixed-effects model describing longitudinal TTP was built. Independent variables associated with increased bacterial clearance (increased TTP), assessed by subject-specific and population-level trajectories, were higher rifapentine exposure, lower baseline grade of sputum acid-fast bacillus smear, absence of productive cough, and lower extent of lung infiltrates on radiographs. Importantly, sensitivity analysis revealed that major learning milestones in phase 2b trials, such as significant exposure-response and covariate relationships, could be detected using truncated TTP data as early as 6 weeks from start of treatment, suggesting alternative phase 2b study designs. The TTP model built depicts a novel phase 2b surrogate endpoint that can inform early assessment of experimental treatment efficacy and treatment failure or relapse in patients treated with shorter and novel TB treatment regimens, improving efficiency of phase 2 clinical trials. (The studies discussed in this paper have been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifiers NCT00694629 and NCT01043575.).