Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal
Matthew Binsted, Ellie Lochner, Jae Edmonds, José Morales Benitez, John Bistline, Morgan Browning, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, Jay Fuhrman, Leonard Göke, Gokul Iyer, Kathleen M. Kennedy, Page Kyle, Carol S. Lenox, Haewon McJeon, Kowan T.V. O'Keefe, Patrick O’Rourke, Amogh Prabhu, Ronald D. Sands, Luis Sarmiento, Sharon Showalter, Nadja Victor, Frances Wood, Sha Yu, Mei Yuan
Abstract
The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37 th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H 2 ) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO 2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO 2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $250 and $500 per ton CO 2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO 2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO 2 /year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO 2 . Hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H 2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system ; however, H 2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.