A prospective life cycle assessment of insulation and window systems under evolving electricity and recycling scenarios for building energy retrofit in Italy
Francesco Valentini, Gianluca Maracchini, Rocco di Filippo, Andrea Dorigato, Oreste S. Bursi
Abstract
The necessity of building renovation for the transition to a Net Zero future requires the extensive use of insulating materials with benefits in terms of reduced operational energy demand, but at the expense of increased embodied environmental impacts. To make informed choices on materials selection and intervention timing, it is necessary to anticipate how the environmental impact of construction materials will evolve in the coming decades. In this work, future material scenarios were developed taking into account both the expected electricity mix evolution and the introduction of different amounts of recyclate in construction materials. The results showed that the future trends in the electricity grid and in the recyclate introduction within construction materials would potentially lead to a strong reduction of the environmental impact of the selected insulating materials production (−70 % for XPS, EPS, stone wool and −90 % for glass wool). From an economic perspective, it has resulted that biobased solutions are not as convenient as conventional ones. This highlights the need for policies that promote the adoption of low-impact materials, such as wood fibre panels and timber-framed windows, and support the integration of environmental performance criteria in renovation strategies. The findings of this study can inform long-term investment planning, as the trade-off between embodied and operational impacts is expected to shift significantly over time. Anticipating these changes is essential to develop effective roadmaps that align with climate targets while minimizing overall environmental burdens.