The Use of High-Risk Criteria to Assess Mortality Risk among Unsheltered Homeless Persons
Jill S. Roncarati, James J. O’Connell, Stephen W. Hwang, Travis P. Baggett, E. Francis Cook, Nancy Krieger, Glorian Sorensen
Abstract
We assessed the ability of high-risk criteria developed by Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program to identify increased mortality during a 10-year cohort study (January 2000-December 2009) of 445 unsheltered adults. To qualify as high-risk for mortality, an individual slept unsheltered for six consecutive months or longer plus had one or more of the following characteristics: tri-morbidity, defined as co-occurring medical, psychiatric, and addiction diagnoses; one or more inpatient or respite admissions; three or more emergency department visits; 60 years old or older; HIV/AIDS; cirrhosis; renal failure; frostbite, hypothermia, or immersion foot. A total of 119 (26.7%) individuals met the high-risk criteria. The remaining 326 individuals in the cohort were considered lowerrisk. During the study, 134 deaths occurred; 52 (38.8%) were among high-risk individuals. Compared with sheltered individuals, the age-standardized mortality ratio for the high-risk group was 4.0 (95% confidence interval 3.0, 5.2) times higher and for the lower-risk group was 2.2 (1.8, 2.8) times higher. The hazard ratio, a measure of survival, for the high-risk group was 1.7 (1.2, 2.4) times that of the lower-risk group. High-risk criteria predicted an increased likelihood of mortality among unsheltered individuals. The lower-risk group also had high mortality rates compared with sheltered individuals.