Progress of the Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) Model and Its Applications
Zhen-Gang Ji, Zhen Li, W. R. Johnson, Guillermo Auad
Abstract
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is responsible for managing the development of US Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) energy and mineral resources. Because oil spills may occur from offshore oil and gas activities, BOEM conducts oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) prior to oil and gas lease sales. Since the 1970s, BOEM has developed and applied the OSRA model to evaluate the risk of potential oil spills to environmental resources. This paper summarizes some of the OSRA model progress and applications in the past decade: (1) calculation of the risk of catastrophic oil spills (with a volume over one million barrels), which concludes that the return period of a catastrophic oil spill in OCS areas is estimated to be 165 years; (2) a more efficient way to estimate the probability of oil spill contact to environmental resources in the Gulf of Mexico; (3) weathering calculations in OSRA, which enhances the accuracy of the OSRA model results; and (4) application of OSRA to the Ixtoc I oil spill as an example of how the OSRA model simulates large oil spills for oil spill preparedness and response.