Adolescent Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Type 2 Diabetes in Young Adulthood
Aya Bardugo, Cole D. Bendor, Inbar Zucker, Miri Lutski, Tali Cukierman‐Yaffe, Estela Derazne, Ofri Mosenzon, Dorit Tzur, Zivan Beer, Orit Pinhas‐Hamiel, Michal Ben‐Ami, Boris Fishman, Dana Ben‐Ami Shor, Itamar Raz, Arnon Afek, Hertzel C. Gerstein, Hans‐Ulrich Häring, Amir Tirosh, Zohar Levi, Gilad Twig
Abstract
CONTEXT: The long-term risk of type 2 diabetes in adolescents with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess type 2 diabetes risk among adolescents with NAFLD. DESIGN AND SETTING: A nationwide, population-based study of Israeli adolescents who were examined before military service during 1997-2011 and were followed until December 31, 2016. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1 025 796 normoglycemic adolescents were included. INTERVENTIONS: Biopsy or radiographic tests were prerequisite for NAFLD diagnosis. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Type 2 diabetes incidence. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13.3 years, 12 of 633 adolescents with NAFLD (1.9%; all with high body mass index [BMI] at baseline) were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes compared with 2917 (0.3%) adolescents without NAFLD. The hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-4.58) for the NAFLD vs. the non-NAFLD group after adjustment for BMI and sociodemographic confounders. The elevated risk persisted in several sensitivity analyses. These included an analysis of persons without other metabolic comorbidities (adjusted HR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.48-5.14]) and of persons with high BMI; and an analysis whose outcome was type 2 diabetes by age 30 years (adjusted HR, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.02-4.52]). The results remained significant when a sex-, birth year-, and BMI-matched control group was the reference (adjusted HR, 2.98 [95% CI, 1.54-5.74]). CONCLUSIONS: Among normoglycemic adolescents, NAFLD was associated with an increased adjusted risk for type 2 diabetes, which may be apparent before age 30 years.