Mapping forest-based natural climate solutions
Colin S. Shanley, Rose A. Graves, C. Ronnie Drever, Michael Schindel, James Robertson, Michael J. Case, Tanushree Biswas
Abstract
Natural climate solutions are critical actions of ecosystem stewardship to mitigate climate change. However, prioritizing locations and possible actions is challenging. We demonstrate a generalizable approach for identifying potential opportunities for natural climate solutions by creating a spatial hierarchy of land management restrictions. Global forest carbon stocks and flux models were then used to explore forest-based natural climate solutions in the high-carbon density coastal temperate rainforests of western North America. Our results show 13 million hectares are available for action, an area that holds 4,900 ± 640 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent and represents 45% of regional and 0.5% of global aboveground forest carbon stocks. Based on historical trends, a 10% reduction in average annual forest carbon loss through improved forest management and conservation could reduce forest carbon emissions by 9.1 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, corresponding to 5.2% of the 2030 land-based climate commitments made by the United States and Canada. Large-scale implementation of natural climate solutions will require collaborative planning with forest-dependent communities, industry, governments, and Indigenous peoples. In the coastal temperate rainforests of western North America, the reduction of forest loss by improved management and conservation could reduce forest greenhouse gas emissions, according to an analysis using global forest carbon stocks and flux models and landownership data.