Simple ecological indicators benchmark regeneration success of Amazonian forests
André L. Giles, Juliana Schietti, Milena Fermina Rosenfield, Rita C. G. Mesquita, Daniel Luís Mascia Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Lourens Poorter, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Marielos Peña‐Claros, João Victor Siqueira, Luis Oliveira, Mário M. Espírito‐Santo, Priscila Sanjuan de Medeiros Sarmento, Joice Ferreira, Érika Berenguer, Jos Barlow, Fernando Elias, Henrique Cassol, Richarlly da Costa Silva, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Natália Lopes Medeiros, André Braga Junqueira, Paulo Massoca, Marciel José Ferreira, Markus Gastauer, Leandro Valle Ferreira, Danilo Roberti Alves de Almeida, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Catarina C. Jakovac
Abstract
Natural regeneration of Amazon forests offers a promising strategy to mitigate forest loss and advance the goals of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. However, the vast variability in regeneration rates across environmental gradients and over time poses considerable challenges for assessing regeneration success and ecosystem services provision in human-modified landscapes. Here we compiled 448 plots from forest regeneration in the Amazon to investigate the drivers of regrowth capacity and identify robust ecological indicators. By modeling optimal successional trajectories, we estimated reference values for vegetation structure, diversity, and functioning. After 20 years, successful regeneration should reach a minimum basal area of 14 m². ha−¹, at least 34 tree species per 100 individuals, a structural heterogeneity index of 0.27, and 123 Mg.ha−¹ of aboveground biomass. These straightforward indicators and reference values provide a foundational framework for governments and practitioners to assess success and establish targets for Amazon restoration efforts. Optimal regeneration success in Amazonian forests is mapped by simple ecological indicators, providing reference values for measuring restoration success across successional stages based on a large compiled dataset on forest regeneration.