Feasibility, conditions, and opportunities for achieving net-negative emissions in the global cement industry

Abstract

• The role of BECCS in decarbonizing the global cement industry is assessed. • BECCS could bring neutrality forward by 10 to 18 years. • Current biomass utilization rate and policies are insufficient to decarbonize cement by 2050. • Net-negative cement could be achieved by 2050. The cement industry possesses multiple options to decarbonize its operations, including material efficiency, energy efficiency, clinker content reduction, hydrogen utilization, bioenergy, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). By integrating bioenergy and CCS (BECCS), the industry could produce net-negative cement, surpassing the 2050 carbon neutrality pledge of the Global Cement and Concrete Association. In TIAM-FR, a bottom-up optimization model of the global energy system, we developed an explicit model of the global cement industry to analyze the potential contribution of BECCS to producing cleaner cement. We investigated the technical and policy conditions favorable to BECCS deployment and sustainability, considering different future biomass potentials, yields, rotation periods, and management costs. Our findings demonstrate that BECCS can significantly contribute to cement decarbonization, making it easier, quicker, and more cost-effective to achieve. However, the current bioenergy use and policy landscape falls short of meeting the 2050 target. Scaling bioenergy use from 3% of the global energy mix to more than 40%, along with strengthening global climate policies, is essential. By leveraging the potential of bioenergy substitution up to 80% and extensively invest in CCS processes, carbon neutrality in cement production could be advanced by 10 to 18 years, enabling the production of net-negative cement. Finally, we propose a technical roadmap for the decarbonization of the global cement industry.

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