Effects of climate change on food security in Africa: Meta-analysis

Abstract

Despite extensive research on the effects of climate change on food production and security in Africa, a comprehensive and quantitatively robust understanding of these relationships remains limited. This study employs meta-analytic techniques to assess the effect of key climate variables-precipitation, temperature, and CO 2 emissions-on food security based on evidence from 60 eligible studies across the continent. Effect sizes were calculated using Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), pooled, and presented as forest plots with 95 % confidence intervals. Among these studies, 50 examined precipitation, 41 focused on temperature, and 22 analyzed CO 2 emissions. Precipitation had a statistically significant moderate positive effect on food security (r = 0.431, 95 % CI: 0.14–0.72), whereas temperature had a very weak negative but non-significant association (r = −0.089, 95 % CI: 0.425–0.246). Although CO 2 emissions showed a weak positive correlation (r = 0.181, 95 % CI: 0.038–0.400), the association was statistically insignificant, indicating the need for cautious interpretation. Robustness checks, including subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis, were conducted to validate the findings. Policymakers and stakeholders should collaboratively invest in climate-resilient agriculture, such as improved seed varieties, irrigation, and early warning system, to enhance smallholder adaptation and ensure long-term food security. Given the complexity of climate-food security interactions, further research incorporating broader environmental and contextual variables is needed. • A meta-analysis was conducted for each climate factor (precipitation, temperature, and CO 2 emissions). • This study examined the overall effect of climate change on food security across Africa, not specific regions. • A total of 60 published articles were analyzed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship.

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