Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera
Maria Hällfors, Juha Pöyry, Janne Heliölä, Ilmari Kohonen, Mikko Kuussaari, Reima Leinonen, Reto Schmucki, Pasi Sihvonen, Marjo Saastamoinen
Abstract
Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.