Complex Networks Reveal Heatwave Patterns and Propagations Over the USA
Somnath Mondal, Ashok K. Mishra
Abstract
Abstract Quantifying the dynamical linkage, co‐evolution, and propagation of regional heatwaves is essential to minimize socio‐economic losses. Here, we investigate such network structure and propagation characteristics for warm period (May–September) heatwaves over Conterminous United States using a complex network approach based on daily maximum temperature. The concept of Event Synchronization (ES) is applied to identify the source and sink regions primarily responsible for heatwave propagations and the strength of association between these regions. The network coefficients are derived to evaluate the extremal dependence, co‐evolution, and spatial propagation of large scale heatwavc events. The topology and propagation of heatwaves are influenced by the spatial distribution of the zonal and meridional air mass transport. Furthermore, we demonstrated the application of ES metrics and the network coefficients for heatwave days prediction between source and sink regions with true positive rate of 63% at a lead time of 2 days.