Development of 24 hours Dst index prediction from solar wind data and IMF Bz using NARX
F Nuraeni, Mamat Ruhimat, M A Aris, Elvina Ayu Ratnasari, C Purnomo
Abstract
Abstract Disturbance Storm Time (Dst) index is an index which measured the decrease in the horizontal component of the Earth’s magnetic field near the magnetic equator due to increases in the magnetospheric ring current. The index shows the strength and duration of a geomagnetic storm. The geomagnetic storms themselves could harm technological systems on earth. Dst index prediction is needed as an effort to mitigate the impact of geomagnetic storms. This paper described a 24 hours Dst index prediction using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) method. Solar wind parameters and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz has been used as exogenous input for the model. By using 39 geomagnetic storms data during 1997 to 2000 as training data and 7 geomagnetic storms data during 2000 to 2001 as testing data that have not been used in the training, the correlation between target and ouput was 0.97. The model than being used to predict Dst index for operational purposes and obtained the RMSE from 1 August to 31 October 2021 was ‘∼5 – 20 nT during quiet days and ∼18 – 45 nT during disturb days.