Dynamics of Inflammatory Markers in Predicting Mortality in COVID-19
Aditi Parimoo, Ashutosh Biswas, Upendra Baitha, Gaurav Gupta, Shivam Pandey, Piyush Ranjan, Vandana Gupta, Debarchan Barman Roy, Bindoo Prakash, Naveet Wig
Abstract
Introduction A cytokine storm is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of the study was to determine the prognostic significance of pro-inflammatory cytokines with the overall final outcome of patients with COVID-19. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of 142 patients admitted with COVID-19 in the Department of Medicine at All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, from May 2021 to June 2021. We obtained their demographic, clinical, and biochemical characteristics at baseline and 48-72 hours prior to the terminal event (survival/death). The data were analyzed to determine the prognostic significance of these markers on the final outcome. Results Higher levels of inflammatory markers were associated with a worse final outcome (ferritin p-value <0.001, c-reactive protein (CRP) p-value <0.001, interleukin 6 (IL-6) p-value 0.007, procalcitonin p-value 0.005, and lactic acid p-value 0.004). Optimal probability cut-offs for these markers for predicting mortality were: ferritin: 963 ng/mL (sensitivity - 67.35%, specificity - 67.50%), CRP: 66.3 mg/L (sensitivity - 78.43%, specificity - 74.12%), IL-6: 46.2 pg/mL (sensitivity - 59.26%, specificity - 59.57%), procalcitonin: 0.3ng/mL (sensitivity - 65.38 %, specificity - 66.67%), lactic acid: 1.5 mg/dL (sensitivity - 59.26%, specificity - 58.57%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was done, which showed that pre-terminal event CRP was associated with a statistically significant higher risk of mortality (Unadjusted OR 18.89, Adjusted OR 1.008, p=0.002, 95% CI 6.815 - 47.541). Conclusion Inflammatory markers have a prognostic significance in patients with COVID-19, with higher levels being associated with worse outcomes.