Russia in Outer Space: A Shrinking Space Power in the Era of Global Change
Florian Vidal, Roman Privalov
Abstract
Since 2014, the Russian space sector has handled institutional rearrangement and external economic pressure. On the one hand, the establishment of the State Space Corporation Roscosmos intended to renovate a critical segment and save an industry that is one of the jewels of the Soviet legacy. On the other hand, the Russian annexation of Crimea triggered waves of financial and economic sanctions that crippled the country's access to space technologies and broader international cooperation in outer space. As a result of the dynamic, the Russian space program has been in a grey zone in recent years. On the eve of the war in Ukraine, the Russian government made a strategic choice for total decoupling from Western countries. The Russian decision stresses a trajectory already taken where space activities are increasingly becoming an instrument of deterrence. The military dimension increasingly defines the Russian space program, while LEO becomes an area for confrontation. To circumvent complete isolation in the international arena, Russia will attempt to maintain vigorous diplomatic actions to curb the technology desert and maintain vital space activities in the foreseeable future. Hence, this article aims to identify available tools that Russia may use to envision a new strategy in outer space. Considering the rupture between the West and Russia, we describe the long-term effects on the space industry. We finally highlight potential alternative cooperations that may allow Russia to build its space diplomacy around a network of peripheral states while the partnership with China remains restricted.